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Friday, December 03, 2004

According to the Constitution, the new Parliament has to meet at the president's call in less than 20 days after the elections, which means before December 18, six days after the second round of presidential elections.

After the new Parliament chooses its leading structures, the incoming president will take the oath of office in front of the senators and deputies.

The president will then name a candidate for prime minister, after consulting the party with the parliamentary majority or, if none of the parties have a majority, then all the parliamentarians have to be consulted on the matter, according to the Constitution.

In less than 10 days after he is nominated, the candidate for prime minister will ask for the Parliament's vote of trust.

The results of the presidential elections are validated by the Constitutional Court.

In case of government reshuffling, the president has the right to dismiss and name, at the prime minister's proposal, some members of the government.

An alliance with the Hungarian Democratic Alliance (UDMR) is not enough to get majority in Parliament both for the Social Democratic Union - Humanist (PSD+PUR) Union and for the Liberal and Democratic (PNL-PD) Alliance.

The Union needs two more senators and 13 deputies, while the Alliance needs ten senators and 33 deputies.

The absolute majority in the Deputies Chamber is 167 votes, while in the Senate it is 69 votes.

The results for the Deputies Chamber released by Central Electoral Bureau show that the Union has 132 seats, the Alliance 112, followed by the PRM with 48 and UDMR with 22.
In the Senate, the Union has 57 seats, the Alliance 49, PRM has 21 and UDMR with 10.

The PNL-PD Alliance together with UDMR would not get the Senate majority even with the support from the other minorities, as they only reach a number of 152 seats.

Both in the Senate and in the Deputies Chamber, the PSD+PUR might try to persuade several parliamentarians from PRM or even from the Alliance to side with the Union.

As far as the Senate is concerned, the Union would only need two senators to obtain the majority. The scenario of forming the majority through parliamentarians' "migration" is less probable in the case of an understanding between the Alliance and UDMR, as they would need a massive number of members from the Union or from PRM to migrate, according to a Mediafax news agency comment.

Both the Union and the Alliance have so far ruled out an alliance with PRM. The nationalist party has more members in the parliament than UDMR does, as it has 48 deputies and 28 senators.

If either of the two major parties would go for an alliance with PRM, they would much easier form a parliamentary majority. Additionally, the PRM might give its support to the future government only with members in the Parliament, without having members in the government.

This way, the Union together with PRM would have a comfortable majority of 180 deputies and 78 senators. If the Alliance would ally with PRM, it would have 160 deputies and would need other seven votes from the minorities, and at the Senate they obtain 70 votes.

A collaboration between the Alliance and PRM would be the only possibility for the Union to become part of the opposition.
After the elections, UDMR wants to have members in the government, but even in this case the PRM might only support certain laws proposed by the government, according to their interests.

On the other hand, an opposition formed by the PRM and the Alliance would be a strong political force which may block the works of the Parliament and might lead to an eventual fall of the government, as it would only need five more votes to pass a no- confidence vote. Plus, PRM might tilt the balance with only a few parliamentarians during legislative debates.

If the Alliance allies with UDMR, they wouldn't have the same power and the hypothesis is least probable because this way the Union would have a minority government supported only by PRM.

Only four political groups will get in the Parliament, but in fact there are six parties: PSD, PUR, PNL, PD, UDMR, PRM that may form separate parliamentary groups, which may lead to other formulas for the majority and the opposition.

The stability of the future government will depend on the future president and on the following political understandings - new alliances, migrations, personal and party interests - that might lead to unexpected changes in the situation regarding the make up of the Parliament. In addition, the process of European Union integration and social elements might influence the Parliament.

Posted by Iulia Rasoiu : 12/03/2004 11:24:00 am

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