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Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Business in Romania blog
It seems that the U.S. election system failed to choose a winner on voting day for the second straight presidential contest, raising the possibility that the courts may have to break a deadlock between George W. Bush and his challenger Sen. John Kerry.

Bush was leading Kerry in a race that may hinge on Ohio and not be decided for (some say)at least 11 days, when provisional ballots are counted.
Excluding Ohio, Bush had 254 electoral votes, 16 short of the 270 required for victory. Kerry had 252 electoral votes, according to network projections. Results for New Mexico and Iowa were delayed, officials said.
This impasse may delay decisions affecting the Iraq war, such as a possible U.S.-led attack on insurgents in Fallujah, and legislation including a bill to revise the U.S. intelligence system, said Charles Pena, director of defense policy studies at the Cato Institute in Washington. "It may not be politically feasible to do some things, and until we know the outcome everything is on hold'' Pena said.
More than that, in a business aproach, the decision delay drops the confidence in some U.S. financial markets because of the uncertainty.''

In fact, the main issue in OHIO is the as many as 250,000 'provisional ballots' -- meaning those cast by voters whose names didn't appear on registration rolls -- in Ohio. By law, the validity of those ballots must be determined and all eligible ones counted.

(It reminds me of the 'well-known' Romanian "urna-mobila"...)

The ideea is that With 99.9 percent of the votes counted, Bush led by 134,000 votes in Ohio, which has 20 electoral votes.

And if Bush wins Ohio...he is re-elected.

Mr. President had already won 28 states to get his 254 electoral votes. Mr. Kerry, the four-term senator from Massachusetts, had won 19 states and Washington D.C., taking 252 electoral votes.
Bush led in the popular vote, 51 percent to 48 percent.

For the first time in a presidential election, all states are required to let voters cast provisional ballots if their registration status was in question.
"A lot of people tried to vote last time and ended up not being able to! This time they won't be shut out entirely.'' said Vikram Amar, a professor of constitutional law at the University of California and a former Supreme Court clerk.

Bush supporters said Kerry wouldn't win enough provisional ballots to take Ohio. As I said befor Mr. President has an advantage of 134,000 in Ohio for the moment.

"Based on our experience in Ohio politics, we believe that the president's lead in Ohio is clear and that it cannot be surmounted,'' Ohio's Republican Senators Mike DeWine and George Voinovich said in a statement. "Senator Kerry should concede defeat and spare the country the turmoil of another drawn- out election.''
On the other hand, unless the additional counting delivers the presidency to Bush or Kerry, the decision may end up in the hands of courts in the divided states, and perhaps ultimately the Supreme Court or House of Representatives.

While the highest court's membership is unchanged from 2000, when it voted 5-4 in favor of Bush, Chief Justice Rehnquist's absence from the court this week because he is being treated for thyroid cancer would further complicate matters by making a 4-4 vote possible...

If the courts can't settle the issue by Jan. 3, the matter will be left to the House of Representatives, where each state has one vote based on the results of the 2004 election.

That would likely mean the re-election of Bush as Republicans extended their decade-long control of the House by beating four incumbent Democrats in Texas and picking up a seat in Kentucky. The Republicans have 227 seats in the House to the Democrats' 198.

Posted by Cristian C. Francu : 11/03/2004 02:08:00 pm Not a sure winner yet in the US Elections.
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